Following the last developments on Karabakh issue,we can predict that Russia´s influence over Armenia is dropping off.I do not claim that Moscow´s influence diminished all over the South Caucasus,at least in Armenia.
Needless to say that Russia´s “fifth column”is active in Georgia,Armenia and Azerbaijan.Particularly,Moscow´s “fifth column” and economic influence are still strong,effective in Armenia.In addition,Russia´s military base in Gyumru is a serious pressure on Armenia as well.
Thus,we are able to assume that Russia lost the battle for the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace truce.In other words,Pashinyan´s Armenia doesn´t rely on Russia´s intermediery role for finel peace agreements.
In my opinion,if president of Russia invites Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders to carry on peace negotiations,Pashinyan is not going to Moscow.The other possibility is that Armenia quits 2020,9-10 November ceasefire agreement:if this happens,Russia will be alienated from peace process.
Besides,we see a new a new era begins in South
Caucasus and Russia´s role in it will be fading while Turkey´s role increase.It means that as soon as Azerbaijan and Armenia sign peace truce,Erdogan´s Turkey will immediately open a land border with Armenia.We comprehend that Turkish president has a great talent to manipulate with other leaders.in the last 21 years Erdogan´s actions,decisions have showed us this veracity.
After the borders between Turkey and Armenia are opened,Ankara´s influence expends over Yerevan.Turkey is a member of NATO and other European institutions,can play an essential role in Armenian´s internal and external politics.and this is important enough for allies in the West.
Of course,Russian state does not sleep and observe Turkey´s plans on Armenia.In this context,we should not underestimate Iran´s reaction on this issue…
Kamal Aliyev