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  5. Kamal Aliyev: Why Pashinyan sees CSTO as an insurmountable obstacle?

Kamal Aliyev: Why Pashinyan sees CSTO as an insurmountable obstacle?

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expresses that being a member of the CSTO,we cannot get from it the political supports and weapons we need.I find Pashinyan´s comments too interesting on CSTO.On the other hand,Pashinyan is standing between Russia and the West in order to get support for his country´s interests.It is being understood but the main predicament on this issue that both sides demands from Yerevan to choose final decision.
Recently,Moscow threatens Armenia on its pro-Western policy.Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has so stated that Russia would never abandon South Caucasus.It does mean that in order to stay lifelong in the South Caucasus,Moscow tries its best.Not only Russia,but also Moscow´s strategic partner Iran does not want the West get involved in South Caucasus issues.

As I above mentioned,Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is not in rush to abandon Russian led CSTO.Furthermore,Yerevan has once declerad that Armenia could not joint any political bloc.It can be found that Armenia can be “neutral”country between the West and Russia.As we know,Moscow has many times offered Ukraine´s “neutrality” and not entering to NATO.It seems to me that Armenia´s Pashinyan in any case want to abandon CSTO.
Therefore,Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has got two goals:either to integrate his country to EU,to get security guarantees or at least being neutral state.

Currently,Pashinyan´s Armenia can not decide to withdraw from the CSTO due to economic dependence on Russia.Pasinyan´s predecessors-Robert Kocharyan,Serj Sarkisyan have integrated Armenia economically and politically to Russia.And it this context,it is difficult enough to withdraw Russian led CSTO earlier.
In a nutshell,Pashinyan is considering all difficulties in detail and is not in a hurry.As Pashinyan said,he would comprehend Armenia´s interests before making and political decisions.According to Armenian Prime Minister,the CSTO´s de facto actions or inaction do not address its obligations towards Yerevan.Armenian government claims that Russian led CSTO do not comply with the interests of Yerevan.
In addition,Pashinyan´s administration is stuggling against Russia´s “fifth columns”in Armenia and it can be claimed that there are plenty of positive results toward this issue.As Pashinyan said,there is not”deep state”in Armenia.Nikol Pashinyan is clearly saying that Russia´s “fifth column”and”deep state”will never exist in in country.
In conclusion,Armenia challenges against Russia.But Yerevan is cautious enough and is not in rush.
My impression on this issue that Yerevan is waiting the result of war between Russia and Ukraine.If Russia wins the war in Ukraine,Pashinyan´s Armenia will not withdraw from the CSTO.

Kamal Aliyev-The Chairman of Baku based “Peace”Research Institute

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