Alihüseyin Guluzade: Armenian Apostolic Church – The Final Boss for Nikol Pashinyan on the Path to ‘Real Armenia’

Below is an objective, unbiased, and comprehensive report regarding the confrontation between the authorities and the church in Armenia, with possible developments of the situation.  

Context  

From May 29 to June 27, 2025, Armenia witnessed a significant confrontation between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), marked by mutual accusations, arrests, and political reactions. This confrontation quickly escalated into an internal political conflict, which was also intensified by the arrest of Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, the mass detention of opposition figures, and events in Holy Etchmiadzin (historic Uchkilsa).

1. Confrontation between Pashinyan and the Armenian Church  

The conflict between Pashinyan and the AAC, especially with Catholicos Karekin II (secular name Ktrij Nersisyan), has its roots in political and ideological disagreements, which particularly intensified in early June 2025. Overall, the catalyst and harbinger of the events was the Armenian Prime Minister’s Facebook post on June 9, 2025, in which he accused Karekin II of breaking the vow of celibacy by fathering a child, and even before that, on May 29, 2025, he compared churches to “dirty closets.”

The church’s reaction in this regard was ambiguous. For example, the Catholicos himself did not respond to the accusations of violating celibacy or Pashinyan’s calls for an explanation. Some church figures advised Pashinyan to seek treatment; others did not deny the violation of celibacy, appealing to it as a “norm.” For instance, the head of the Shirak Diocese, Archbishop Mikael Ajapahyan (more on him below), considered the “right hand” of Karekin II, called for concern over Pashinyan’s mental health. The director of the archives and museums of the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, Priest Asoghik Karapetyan, and the head of the theology department at Iravan State University, Paruyr Barsegyan, noted that the issue of celibacy is an internal matter of the Church and not subject to state intervention.

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But Pashinyan did not stop – on June 10, 2025, the Armenian Prime Minister announced the creation of a new body – the “Coordination Council” – for the potential removal of Karekin II. The Armenian Prime Minister even specified “parameters” for those wishing to become members of the Council and attached his email for applications.

Most likely, the harbinger of Pashinyan’s aggressive and vulgar attacks on the Church was Karekin II’s critical comments about Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process during a conference in Bern (Switzerland) on May 27, 2025.

Overall, if considered more broadly, the Church has been and remains the institution in Armenia that has shown the most criticism toward Pashinyan’s policies, not only regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, which is viewed by the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin as a “betrayal of national interests” by the current Armenian authorities.

2. Arrest of Samvel Karapetyan  

Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire and head of the Tashir Group, also became a central figure in this conflict after defending the church. On June 17, 2025, his residence was searched following an interview with News.am. In particular, he criticized Pashinyan’s anti-church campaign, which ultimately led to his detention on June 18, 2025. Pashinyan himself, in response to journalists’ inquiries, stated that the businessman’s speech was not about the church but about Armenia.

Later, S. Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the overthrow of the government and was imprisoned for two months. Notably, immediately after this, the authorities announced the decision to nationalize and put up for auction the company “Electric Networks of Armenia“ (ENA) owned by Karapetyan. This issue will be considered by the Armenian parliament on July 1, 2025.

Russia, of which Samvel Karapetyan is a citizen, through the head of the Russian Federation’s press service Dmitry Peskovand the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova, stated that it is monitoring the development of the situation around its citizens.

3. Mass Detentions of Opposition Figures. Arrest of Bagrat Galstanyan  

On June 25, 2025, reports began to emerge about mass detentions of opposition figures and searches in the homes of representatives of the “Dashnaktsutyun” party. As a result of these measures, Bagrat Galstanyan (Srbazan) – the leader of the “Tavush – For the Homeland” movement – was also detained. According to law enforcement agencies, he, along with other accomplices from the church, had been preparing since November 2024 for a forceful scenario to seize power and attempted to carry out a “repeat of the 2008 Armenian parliament shooting.”

4. Events in Etchmiadzin  

On June 27, 2025, the special forces of the National Security Service of Armenia (NSS RA) entered the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, conducting searches in the Catholicos’s residence and planning to detain Archbishop Mikael Ajapahyan. This step by the authorities should be seen as part of the criminal case initiated on June 17, 2025, against Ajapahyan for calls to seize power.

Despite the fact that the security forces were unable to carry out the detention at first due to the huge influx of visiting Armenians to the territory of the Mother See, Ajapahyan himself later came out to the security forces and called on the parishioners to march to Iravan (although he eventually got into a car). After arriving at the Investigative Committee and spending several hours inside, the cleric was arrested for two months.

The latest political repressions by the Armenian authorities initiated discussions about the possible unification of the Armenian opposition around Ajapahyan’s candidacy. Many political forces, including the “Armenia” alliance (Dashnaktsutyun & Revived Armenia), expressed readiness to nominate the cleric for the post of Prime Minister. Former ally of Pashinyan, Edmond Marukyan, also withdrew his candidacy in favor of the priest. However, just a few hours after the arrest, it became known that Ajapahyan, in a letter written after his detention, stated his unwillingness to run for the post of Prime Minister.

5. Reactions of the Armenian Political Expert Community  

The Armenian opposition, as expected, criticized N. Pashinyan’s position and comments regarding the Church in an extremely negative manner, calling them “undemocratic,” “traitorous,” and destructive to the foundations of the state and Armenian identity.

Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan and political scientist Vigen Hakobyan believe that the authorities’ attacks indicate Pashinyan’s deep fear of the AAC as the only institution not under his control. In their opinion, Pashinyan’s goal is to turn the Church into “one of the departments of his administration” and subordinate it to state interests.

Other Armenian sources pointed to an “Azerbaijani or Turkish trace.” This thesis became particularly relevant in connection with the coincidence of events regarding the resumption of activities of the Iravan Kaziat. For example, political scientist Arman Abovyan anticipates two scenarios for the future structure of the AAC: the “Ukrainian model” (creation of a parallel religious structure and seizure of church properties) and the “Turkish format” (state control over the election of the patriarch and interference in spiritual life).

Expectations and Forecasts (by Early September 2025)  

▪️The confrontation reflects the ideological struggle between Pashinyan’s vision of reforms for “Real Armenia” and the revanchist, pro-Russian legacy embodied by the Church.

▪️If Pashinyan succeeds in breaking the Church, it will indeed be a historic event and will contribute to the peace process with his two Turkic neighbors – Turkiye and Azerbaijan. An alternative scenario suggests a kind of peace agreement between the authorities and the church.

▪️It is evident that with the approach of the June 2026 elections, this conflict may deepen, with potential constitutional reforms to limit the church’s privileges. It is clear that Pashinyan’s ultimate goal is to remove Catholicos Karekin II. Until that period, Pashinyan will keep the topic of replacing the Catholicos in the media space and denounce the AAC. Most likely, pro-Pashinyan media will also conduct an anti-church campaign. And it is also evident that Nikol Pashinyan will stop at nothing and continue political repressions to achieve his goal under any pretext.

▪️It is entirely possible that if Karekin II continues to ignore calls regarding the violation of celibacy and the existence of a child, Pashinyan himself will provide this evidence in another Facebook post; then, there will be a quite justified detention of the Catholicos and a new wave of protests – the last wave that Pashinyan must pacify. This will also lead to a split within the church itself and further chaos in Armenian society due to the likely non-recognition of the newly elected “obedient” Catholicos by the authorities, playing into Pashinyan’s hands on the eve of the June 2026 elections.

▪️Despite the presence of two discussed candidates to replace Karekin II, namely Sahak Mashalian (Constantinople Diocese) and the head of the Kotayk Diocese, Arghishti Karamyan, it is premature to make a confident forecast about the new candidate.

▪️Most likely, Pashinyan will continue periodic detentions of church figures and opposition members (with intervals of 10 to 15 days) to avoid excessively aggravating and destabilizing society, given the risk to himself. That is, the Armenian Prime Minister will deal with his opponents gradually, not all at once.

▪️External reactions, such as Russia’s monitoring, may indicate another brewing geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia in Armenia.

▪️The West will most likely ignore the political repressions by the Armenian authorities under the pretext of the Church’s pro-Russian orientation.

Regarding the timeline, ideally for Pashinyan, this entire issue with the AAC should be concluded by September 2025.

Sources from Report:

▪️International Conference Opens in Bern on Preserving Armenian Spiritual and Cultural Heritage of Artsakh – https://www.armenianchurch.org/en/news/international-conference-opens-in-bern/11839

▪️Pashinyan vs. the Church: Armenia on the Brink of Fracture – https://eclj.org/geopolitics/coe/pashinyan-vs-the-church-armenia-on-the-brink-of-fracture

▪️Why the Armenian authorities went into sharp conflict with church and what Russia has to do with it – https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2025/06/27/7214738/

▪️ARF Eastern Region denounces Pashinyan regime’s assault on Armenian institutions – https://armenianweekly.com/2025/06/26/arf-eastern-region-denounces-pashinyan-regimes-assault-on-armenian-institutions/

▪️Armenia’s PM offers to expose himself in escalating Church row – https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gk0nw2nn0o

Pashinyan Threatens Force Against Armenian Church Head – https://mirrorspectator.com/2025/06/26/pashinyan-threatens-force-against-armenian-church-head/

▪️Pashinyan Escalates Tensions With Armenian Apostolic Church – https://jamestown.org/program/pashinyan-escalates-tensions-with-armenian-apostolic-church/

▪️Armenia order to arrest senior priest over alleged coup plot triggers scuffles – https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-order-arrest-senior-priest-over-alleged-coup-plot-triggers-scuffles-2025-06-27/

▪️In bitter duel with Armenian church, PM Pashinyan offers to show he is not circumcised – https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/06/26/unusual-offer-armenian-pm-offers-to-show-penis-to-orthodox-church-head-in-ongoing-squabble

▪️Crowds block Armenian security forces seeking to arrest a clergyman who criticized the government – https://apnews.com/article/armenia-politics-church-pashinyan-opposition-arrests-0b3d34109fc1626532fa0b1ac5a8f314