Ali Hüseyin Guluzade: Persian Motifs Current Situation Around Iran’s Nuclear Program and Sanctions. Prospects and Contradictions – Autumn 2025

The international tension around Iran’s nuclear program continued to remain relevant in the period after the 12-day war. This period for Iran was also marked by the renewal of UN sanctions, the restoration of the European troika’s snapback mechanism, the cessation of cooperation with the IAEA, as well as the strengthening of defense potential through cooperation with Russia and China.
Renewal of Sanctions and Break with IAEA

On September 20, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) announced the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This decision was made in response to the actions of the “European troika” countries (UK, Germany, and France) aimed at restoring anti-Iranian sanctions by the UN Security Council. (1)
A few days later, on September 24, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking at the UN General Assembly, stated that the country has never sought to acquire nuclear weapons, referring to the religious prohibition (“fatwa” issued on behalf of Iran’s Supreme Leader) on weapons of mass destruction. He called the European troika’s initiative to restore international sanctions illegal, claiming it was adopted under pressure from the US. (2)
However, on September 28, the UN renewed sanctions against Iran. The restoration mechanism, known as “snapback,” was initiated a month earlier by the UK, Germany, and France, who accused Tehran of “persistent and significant non-fulfillment of obligations” under the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). In particular, the imposed restrictions include freezing of foreign assets, prohibition on developing nuclear technologies, and renewal of the arms embargo. Following the UN, on September 28, the European Union also immediately renewed all nuclear sanctions against Iran. (3) (4)
The situation worsened on October 12, when Iran, as a retaliatory measure, officially suspended the implementation of agreements with the IAEA reached in Cairo (Egypt), ceasing interaction with the agency on its nuclear program. (5)
Expiration of UN SC Resolution and refusal of negotiations

On October 18, Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that the ten-year term of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, signed in 2015 regarding the Iranian nuclear program, had expired. The Islamic Republic officially notified the UN that the resolution had lost its force. Tehran also called for the removal of the Iranian nuclear dossier from the Security Council’s agenda, emphasizing that after this date, Iran’s nuclear program should be considered the same as the programs of any other state party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that does not possess nuclear weapons. The Iranian foreign ministry also stated that the European countries’ decision to restore sanctions has “no legal force or consequences.” (6)

Amid sanction pressure, on September 27, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program with the US are “impossible,” since Washington “breaks all promises, lies, and constantly threatens military intervention.” In turn, on November 1, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi again confirmed that Tehran will not stop uranium enrichment, does not intend to negotiate on its nuclear program, and is not ready for direct talks with Washington. (7) (8)
Strengthening Military and Nuclear Potential

Parallel to the diplomatic escalation observed since the beginning of autumn this year, Iran has been actively developing defense and energy projects. For example, on September 23, Tehran officially confirmed the receipt of modern weapons from Russia and China, including MiG-29 fighters and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. According to sources, deliveries of Su-35 fighters and HQ-9 air defense systems are also expected. (9)
Iran’s activity has not gone unnoticed by Western media. Thus, The Washington Post, covering the damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure from the US, reported that after strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, construction of a secret military facility under Mount Kolang in Isfahan province, started in 2020, has accelerated in recent months. The publication’s experts believe that the facility, whose purpose is unknown, could be used for uranium enrichment, its storage, or at least the production of centrifuges. (10)

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On October 6, The Wall Street Journal reported some details of Chinese-Iranian cooperation in the oil and gas sector, noting that Iranian oil supplies to China are carried out on a barter basis; and in addition, China is building infrastructure facilities in Iran, using part of the payments for oil bypassing the international banking system. It is worth noting that the volume of China’s infrastructure work in Iran has indeed noticeably increased since 2021.
On October 29, another publication – CNN disseminated information that Iran is also secretly reviving its missile program with China’s support, having received about 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate (a component of solid rocket fuel) since late September. (11)
Certain progress was observed in the Moscow-Tehran track as well. Thus, Russia and Iran agreed on the construction of new nuclear power plants. On September 26, a $25 billion contract was signed with the Russian side for the construction of the Hormoz NPP in Iran’s Hormozgan province, and on November 2, Iran launched the project for building a new NPP in the northern Golestan province, to collectively achieve the goal of 20,000 MW of electricity generation. (12) (13)
Question of the relevance of the Nuclear program

Amid the latest actions and rumors about Iran, Israel once again symmetrically expressed its tough position. On September 22, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the country’s plans to “destroy the Iranian axis” within the next year. (14)
It should be noted that the topic regarding the previously inflicted strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel still continues to be a subject of certain political speculations. On October 13, US President Donald Trump, speaking in the Knesset (Israel), once again repeated his thesis that American forces during the 12-day war “dropped 14 bombs on key Iranian facilities,” preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. (15)
Amid these events, the words of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during his visit to the “Atomic Energy Organization of Iran” on November 2 were noteworthy, where he stated that Iran would rebuild “even more powerful” nuclear facilities. (16)
In confirmation of the Iranian president’s words, on November 3, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% that went missing after the American strikes are “under the rubble of destroyed enterprises,” and were not removed from this territory. He noted that although the damage was “enormous,” the technologies remained intact. On November 5, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi partially confirmed the words of the head of the Iranian foreign ministry, stating that almost all enriched uranium (up to 60%, 20%, 5%, and 2%) remains in Iran, despite the US and Israeli strikes. It is worth noting that as early as October 26, Grossi warned that although the Islamic Republic currently does not possess nuclear weapons, it is still capable of restoring its nuclear potential if it wishes. (17) (18) (19)
It is also worth mentioning here that The New York Times, citing Israeli intelligence data, disseminated a message that Iran, a few days before the start of the 12-day war and the US strikes, removed about 400 kg of enriched (up to 60%) uranium from its nuclear facilities. (20)

Theses:
– The events of autumn 2025 related to Iran’s nuclear program demonstrate a sharp increase in tension around Tehran.
– External pressure in the form of renewed international sanctions coupled with deepening socio-economic problems will obviously push Iran to a complete break with control mechanisms (IAEA);
– The Pezeshkian government will most likely continue the policy of strengthening strategic alliances (primarily with Russia and China) for the development of its own nuclear/military potential.
– The statements of Iranian officials, as well as the statements of IAEA head Rafael Grossi, allow us to assume that the assertions of the American and Israeli sides about the “destruction of Iran’s nuclear potential” do not quite correspond to reality, although the fact of significant damage is indeed indisputable.
– The statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the intention to destroy the “Iranian axis” within the next year suggest that despite the military-technical advantage over Iran and full support from the US, the intentions of the Jewish state may not fully align with realities, especially in the context of attempts to change power in Iran through direct ground bombings. Moreover, it is not a fact that this time Trump and his administration will also approve the start of a direct Israeli operation against Iran.

Sources
1. Iran to suspend cooperation with UN’s nuclear watchdog … – Le Monde – https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/09/20/iran-says-cooperation-with-the-international-atomic-energy-agency-will-be-suspended-after-european-move-on-un-sanctions_6745592_4.html
2. ‘Iran has never sought and will never seek to build a nuclear bomb … – https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/09/1165935
3. Completion of UN Sanctions Snapback on Iran – https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/09/completion-of-un-sanctions-snapback-on-iran
4. Iran sanctions snapback: Council reimposes restrictive measures – https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/09/29/iran-sanctions-snapback-council-reimposes-restrictive-measures/
5. Iran to Suspend IAEA Deal After UN Sanctions Return – https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-10/news/iran-suspend-iaea-deal-after-un-sanctions-return
6. Iran says UN Resolution 2231 has formally ended – https://www.iranintl.com/en/202510205894
7. Khamenei rejects talks with the US amid Iranian diplomatic push at … – https://amwaj.media/en/media-monitor/khamenei-dismissed-deadlocked-nuclear-talks
8. Iran has ‘no desire’ for talks with US, ‘cannot stop uranium … – https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-has-no-desire-for-talks-with-us-cannot-stop-uranium-enrichment-says-fm/
9. Iran Not Likely To Get Its Air Force Upgraded By Russia Or China … – https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2025/09/23/iran-not-likely-to-get-its-air-force-upgraded-by-russia-or-china-soon/
10. After U.S. strikes, Iran increases work at mysterious underground site – https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/09/26/iran-underground-nuclear-us/
11. How China Secretly Pays Iran for Oil and Avoids U.S. Sanctions – WSJ – https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/how-china-secretly-pays-iran-for-oil-and-avoids-u-s-sanctions-b6f1b71e?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdiXS8VkfX3KS3OHTG7Dg4FuP21p81ZfeZRWW3osE1RrrNIe1lL7Cz-&gaa_ts=6918db71&gaa_sig=IgIzj9cgWi1XF547KqJNriO19OliyGIbsvEtV-UG5eikHivlgsrRP67ZlKcBokNX511hMaDx2Vd-nJ-FhRq3NQ%253D%253D
12. Western intelligence says Iran is rearming despite UN sanctions … – https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/29/middleeast/iran-rebuilding-ballistic-weapons-program-intl
13. Iran and Russia sign $25 billion agreement to build four nuclear … – https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-russia-sign-25-billion-agreement-build-four-nuclear-power-plants-iran-irna-2025-09-26/
14. Iran to Build 8 New Nuclear Plants with Russia’s Help – https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2025/11/02/3438019/iran-to-build-8-new-nuclear-plants-with-russia-s-help
15. PM Netanyahu at a New Year’s Toast with the IDF General Staff Forum – https://www.gov.il/en/pages/event-forum220925
16. [PDF] Address of the President of the United States Donald J. Trump – https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/Documents/SpeechPdf/trump.pdf
17. Iran’s president says Tehran will rebuild its nuclear facilities – Reuters – https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-will-rebuild-its-nuclear-facilities-with-greater-power-president-says-2025-11-02/
18. 60% uranium lies under rubble, no plan to retrieve it, Iran’s FM says – https://www.iranintl.com/en/202511036025
19. IAEA unable to check Iran’s uranium since June war, says inspection … – https://www.timesofisrael.com/iaea-unable-to-check-irans-uranium-since-june-war-says-inspection-long-overdue/
20. Grossi: If Iran Decides, It Can Rebuild Its Nuclear Capabilities – WANA – https://wanaen.com/grossi-if-iran-decides-it-can-rebuild-its-nuclear-capabilities/
21. Officials Concede They Don’t Know the Fate of Iran’s Uranium … – https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/iran-uranium-stockpile-whereabouts.html