The problem of transboundary rivers in Central Asia
Sayat Kazhiev
Senior Researcher, Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower of Kyrgyzstan
Against the backdrop of global climate change and the intensive development of agriculture worldwide, countries located downstream of river basins are already facing water scarcity. Transboundary water management issues are relevant even for countries that currently do not experience water shortages. This is because, in the event of reservoir drying up, environmental disasters can have catastrophic consequences for the entire planet. A prominent example of this is the drying up of the Aral Sea.
Currently, water experts from the Russian Federation, as well as countries in the Central Asian region, express concerns regarding the dynamic development of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China and its consumption of water from transboundary rivers, primarily the Irtysh and Ili.
For instance, the industrial and agricultural development program of the western regions of China, projected until 2050, includes a three-stage project implementation plan. This plan encompasses the “initial industrialization” of the region, the “modernization of industry,” and the “establishment of modern production” incorporating the latest scientific and technological advancements.
In particular, as part of the implementation of the strategic concept “Development of the Western Territories” (the second stage from 2011 to 2030), the authorities of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China conduct activities to divert part of the water from transboundary rivers with Kazakhstan (the Irtysh and Ili) to meet the needs of industries such as the oil industry, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, and agriculture. In this regard, the main goal of river diversion is seen as providing water for the needs of industrial and agricultural facilities in the region.
It should be noted that there are joint bilateral commissions between Kazakhstan and China, as well as between the Russian Federation and China, to resolve joint transboundary water issues and ensure fair water distribution. However, the signing of an agreement on fair water distribution between the countries has not yet been signed due to several reasons, including postponement by the Chinese side.
The only legal document between Kazakhstan and China is the agreement on the protection of the quality of water in transboundary rivers, signed on February 14, 2011, between the relevant agencies of the two countries.
According to experts, the Chinese side’s position indicates a possible intention by Beijing to construct as many hydraulic structures and reservoirs as possible on the territory of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to “de facto” share the already shallow rivers in the event of signing a bilateral agreement on fair water distribution.
The full implementation of economic, infrastructural, and agricultural projects in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China will lead to further diversion of water from transboundary rivers with Kazakhstan on the region’s territory. In this regard, experts forecast that the flow of the Ili River in Kazakhstan will decrease by 40% by 2050, and the Irtysh River by 40-50%. This trend could inevitably lead to negative consequences for both Kazakhstan and Russia, particularly causing significant damage to the metallurgical, energy, agricultural, and fishing industries of the region. Additionally, the gradual reduction of water levels in the Ili and Irtysh rivers could lead to future salinization and drying up of lakes such as Balkhash, Zaysan, and Alakol, as well as reservoirs like Bukhtarma and Shulbinskoye. As experts note, salts and heavy metals stirred up from the bottom of water bodies could pose serious health risks to the population of the entire Central Asian region, southern Russia, and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China itself.
Therefore, considering the common interests of the Central Asian countries and Russia in avoiding ecological and economic disasters, the solution to this situation lies in collective negotiation processes with China to create and develop joint mechanisms for ensuring water balance between the countries.
Sayat Kazhiev
The problem of transboundary rivers in Central Asia