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  5. Samir Humbatov: What could be the end of Russia’s war of aggression?

Samir Humbatov: What could be the end of Russia’s war of aggression?

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The process of Russia’s occupation of Ukraine has been going on for two weeks, during which time Russia has had almost no serious success. The course of events also shows that Russia’s aggressive policy of war is already taking big steps towards failure. According to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, the loss of more than 12,000 lives in Russia shows that over the years, the myth of the invincible Russian army of the Russian propaganda machine was just a word.
In addition, the fact that Russia lost almost 10% of its army, a large amount of ammunition and military equipment in two weeks, shows that despite the fact that the country has some modern weapons, it has no potential combat capabilities or nor does it have full quality ammunition. Even if we look at the statistics up to March 9, 2022, we can see that the destroyed Russian army is about the size of the army of a medium-sized state. According to statistics provided by the Ukrainian side, by March 9, 2022, the Russian side has lost more than 12,000 servicemen, and 251 servicemen have been taken prisoner. At the same time, the Russian side has 49 aircraft, 81 helicopters, 317 tanks, 1,070 armored combat vehicles, 120 artillery pieces, 28 air defense systems, 56 rocket launchers, 60 fuel tanks, 7 anti-aircraft guns, 3 boats, 482 vehicles and s. also lost. Of course, these figures suggest that the situation will be approximate. What can you see when you look at a map? Within 14 days, the Russian side was able to occupy about 5-7% of the territory, and the Ukrainian side began to retake it with a counterattack. The question here is, if Russia wins or loses in the process of invading Ukraine, what will be the benefit for Russia? If Russia wins this war, it can, at best, extend the life of the current government and reduce decentralization. But the process that began in a certain time may end. Of course, Western sanctions, the country’s defense capabilities, Russia’s arms sales abroad may become impossible for a long time. By 2021, Russia is the world’s second largest arms seller. In 2021, Russia will earn about $ 10 billion from arms sales. However, it is expected that after this war, the world’s confidence in Russia’s weapons and military equipment will decline, and as a result, the number and volume of its buyers will fall.
At the same time, the Russian economy is under severe sanctions by Western countries. If this continues, it could put Russia in a difficult position, as a result of which Russia may turn its face completely to the east, or more precisely to China. This trend could make Russia economically dependent on China.
Of course, China also does not want Russia to win completely in Ukraine. These reasons give reason to think that he is still not paying much attention to the issue.
If Russia loses this war, it is possible to conclude that there will be significant changes in Eurasia, or more precisely in the regions where Russia still has influence. Here, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans are among the regions awaiting major change.
The most realistic change in the South Caucasus is the Karabakh region. In other words, the issue of the withdrawal of Russian “peacekeepers” from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan may come up more, which will give a serious impetus to the full transfer of these territories to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.
Samir Humbatov
Center for International Relations and Diplomatic Studies

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