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  5. Memmed İsmayilov: Why The Escalation Broke Out Between Iran And Azerbaijan? What İs The Real Reason? Could There Be A War Between Iran And Azerbaijan?

Memmed İsmayilov: Why The Escalation Broke Out Between Iran And Azerbaijan? What İs The Real Reason? Could There Be A War Between Iran And Azerbaijan?

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Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have been extremely tense in recent days. After the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan liberated its territories from Armenian occupation. In this regard, in the South Caucasus, the map changed in favor of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan can now control all its borders with Iran. However, Iran continued to carry cargo to Armenia by passing through Azerbaijani territory without obtaining permission from Azerbaijan. To prevent this, Azerbaijan established border posts and began to collect taxes from vehicles passing through Azerbaijani territory to Armenia. Then, Azerbaijan and Turkey regularly held joint military exercises in Nakhchivan. After that, Iran conducted military exercises for the first time on the borders of Azerbaijan. Upon this, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev asked why Iran did not carry out military exercises in this region during the thirty-year Armenian occupation period. Then, Iranian top officials including supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei have begun to accusations to Azerbaijan. According to Iran’s claims, Zionism has emerged in the territory of Azerbaijan. Iran also alleges that Azerbaijan provides support for Israeli intelligence agencies against Iran. But these allegations are baseless and there’s no evidence about it.
So what’re the reasons for Iran’s threats to Azerbaijan? Here are the followings:
– Iran lost its effect in Gulf, thus it doesn’t want to lose its effect in South Caucasus.
– Iran tries to prevent opening the Zengezur corridor. In this regard, Iran might even establish a military base in Armenia to prevent the opening of the Zengezur corridor.
– Iran loses its effect both in South Caucasus and Azerbaijan. Because after the Second Karabakh War, the South Caucasus’ map has changed as both Azerbaijan and Turkey benefit. Also, Shiism and Sunnism no longer affect the Azerbaijani people. On the contras, the thought of Turkishism grows more and more. So, Iran now can’t affect Azerbaijani people with the thought of Shiism.
– Iran loses its effect on Armenia. Because Armenia couldn’t take support from Turkey because of occupation. Therefore, Armenia needs Iran. And Iran had used it for almost three decades. Also thanks to occupying territories by Armenia, Iran was strong in South Caucasus.
– Weapons that bought by Azerbaijan both from Turkey and Israel. These are fifth-generation weapons.
Now, we can move on next questions. It’s possible a full-scale war between Iran and Azerbaijan?
I don’t think so. First of all, the “grey wolf” symbols shared by the Turkish-origin soldiers in the Iranian army show that there are serious separations within the Iranian army. Therefore, in a possible war between the two countries, these Turkish origins Iranian soldiers mightn’t fight against Azerbaijan. Also, minorities of Turkish origin within Iran will not side with Iran in this war. As a result of this, the Iranian army could break down. And they can revolt against Iran.
Additionally, Azerbaijan has a new generation of war capability which ending the Second Karabakh war within a short time. There are Israeli and Turkish-made drones among the Azerbaijan military equipment. Also, Azerbaijan has just bought a new air defense system from Israel yesterday. In other words, it is not possible for Iran to invade Azerbaijan. On the contrary, a full-scale war would cause the destruction of Iran. In addition, the eyes of the international community are on Iran.
So, what should Azerbaijan do?
Azerbaijan mustn’t turn into a proxy-war country. Azerbaijan should normalize relations with Armenia as soon as possible in order to get rid of Iran’s aggressive attitude. After that, Iran’s threats will automatically disappear.
Memmed İsmayilov Kafkassam

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