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  5. Memmed Ismayilov: The Russian intervention in Ukraine in the near future will not be realistic

Memmed Ismayilov: The Russian intervention in Ukraine in the near future will not be realistic

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Russian diplomat Vasily Nebenzya and the State Secretary of the United States Antony Blinken have made statements on the current developments in Donbas region of Ukraine

Vasily Nebenzya, the permanent representative of Russia to the United Nations said that Russia has no intention to intervene in the eastern territories of Ukraine.

However, the top diplomat of the United States Antony stated that all recent provocations in the east of Ukraine had been managed by Russia. According to him, Moscow continues to support the Russian speaking separatist forces in Donbas region.

At the same time, Moscow has gathered a large number of troops and military equipment in the areas sharing borders with Ukraine. Washington is still concerned about the escalation of tension and political situation in eastern Ukraine.

There are speculations that the large-scale war might start in the region as Russian armed forces launch serious offensive attacks on the eastern territories of Ukraine. What will be the serious reaction of the United States if Russia again makes attempts to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine?

Speaking to Eurasia Diary, Memmed Ismayilov, expert on international law, believed that Russia will never intervene in Ukraine, because any attack by Moscow on one of the neighbors will cause grave threat in its territory.

“We know that Russia is geographically the largest country sharing the land borders with many countries around the world. However, Russia does not have enough soldiers to fully ensure the security of its borders. Russian leadership comprehends that the armed attack to the territory of one of its neighbors could lead to the threats, especially ethnic division in Russia,” Ismayilov said

“By the way, in this case other large countries, which have problems with Russia, could take opportunities,” he added.

According to Ismayilov, the intervention in Ukraine would lead Russia to encounter the strong resistance of Turkey, European countries and the United States.

“Kremlin also understands that Turkey is already a regional power and does not hesitate to support Ukraine with the most sophisticated drones. In addition, Europe and the United States both politically and diplomatically stand by Ukraine,” he noted.

Answering question about why Moscow has gathered the troops and military equipment in areas close to the border of Ukraine, he responded that Ukraine’s successful use of Turkish-made drones against the Russian-speaking separatist forces has angered Russia.

“Russian army has conducted large – scale drills in order to reduce the threats of drones,” he said.

Touching upon the reaction of the world to Russian aggression against Ukraine, Ismayilov stressed that the Russian intervention in Ukraine in the near future will not be realistic. He also believed that if the intervention in Ukraine happens, the United States and European countries will take other serious measures than sanctions under international law.

“It is unlikely that the United States will use military force. First of all, Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and has the right to veto. Therefore, the military intervention against Russia by both the United States and its allies is not possible due to Russia’s veto. At the same time, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. This, in turn, complicates NATO’s military support to Ukraine,” he added

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