It should be noted that the large-scale war would create possibility for igniting separatist sentiments of ethnic majorities in Iran.
The American strategic bomber B-1B Lancer held the flights over the territorial waters of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the American press, commenting on the flight of the US Air Force B-1B Lancer over the Strait of Hormuz, they noted that Iran had repeatedly threatened to close the waterway to the strait in the event of a large-scale armed conflict. The US press stated that the flight of an American strategic bomber “can be considered a signal to Iran of the most serious intentions of the United States and its allies,”.
According to the “Military Review”, when the B-1B Lancer flew through Israeli airspace, the American “strategist” was escorted by the F-15 of the Israeli Air Force. After that, they also flew over the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
Further to clarifying the recent developments in the regions of Gulf and Middle East, Eurasia Diary conducted an interview with Memmed Ismayilov, expert on international relations. He studies PhD degree on Public and International Law at Ankara Social Sciences University. His main interests focus on war law, unmanned air tools, space law and sea law.
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– Do you think that the flight of US and Israeli jets over the Strait of Hormuz could be signal to Iran?
– In order to give a sensible answer to your first question, it is necessary to pay attention not only to the rise of tension on the territorial waters, but also to the triangle of Israel, the USA, and Russia. Israel believes that Iran will be able to complete its nuclear program soon. The new US administration’s positive intention on the revival of the negotiations on the nuclear program of Iran has not been welcomed by Israel. On the other side, Iran itself is constantly delaying negotiations on its nuclear program. In addition, Iran no longer wants the limitation of its nuclear program to be a matter of negotiation. In this context, Iran is trying to warn that it can only start negotiations on the lifting of sanctions. In this regard, the US administration is not satisfied with Iran’s attitude. US senior executives are signaling that there are “other options” are on the table if Iran continues to delay nuclear talks. This attitude of Iran towards the USA is in favor of Israel. In this case Israel is trying to use this stance of Iran as a pressure tool against the new US administration. Moreover, Russia is also concerned about the completion of Iran’s nuclear program. It is worth to note that the visit of the new Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, to Russia on October 22, may have something to do with the current tension. According to my opinion, no state can directly attack Iran without the assistance of Russia. The meeting between Neftali Bennet and Vladimir Putin in Moscow was largely successful.
When the policies of these three countries towards Iran are evaluated, we can say that this tension may continue for a while. However, I believe that the tension will not turn into a large-scale war. Because, Moscow still consider Iran as important country. So for now, Russia cannot afford to lose Iran.
It should be noted that the large-scale war would create possibility for igniting separatist sentiments of ethnic majorities in Iran. This separation would have impacts on the ethnic groups living in Russia. In the war Iran’s nuclear program facilities would also be targeted, which would be more beneficial for all three countries (USA, Israel and Russia).
– Do you believe that the escalation of the armed conflict between Iran and US-Israel alliance could be possible in the near future?
– I have largely answered this question above. To be more specific, I don’t think Israel and the US will start a large-scale war with Iran for now. The United States is just using “coercive diplomacy” to get Iran back to the negotiations on the nuclear program.
– Do you think that the countries of the Gulf region, especially Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, will be interested in standing by US and Israel in the armed conflict with Iran?
– It is necessary to take into account the recent attempts for the normalization of relations between Israel and the Gulf states. Israel knows that in a possible armed conflict with Iran in the near future, it will have to use the assistance of the Gulf countries. Therefore, Israel should have better and strong relations with these countries. Israel has already launched all initiatives to normalize relations with some countries of Gulf region, especially Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, in the fields of diplomacy, military and security. By the way, Iran’s hostile attitude towards the Gulf countries also accelerates this process. Another issue that should be taken into account, in addition to the US bomber aircraft, warplanes from Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia also hold flight over the Strait of Hormuz during the tension. This could mean that the US and Israel are preparing the Gulf States to be involved in the possible war against Iran.
– From your opinion, what consequences would the armed conflict with Iran cause in the Middle East and countries sharing borders with the region?
– The current regional and international conjuncture is not ready for Iran’s disintegration. First of all, it is not for the benefit of states such as Russia and Turkey, which are regional powers in the Middle East. The world has not yet solved the refugee problem. There are different ethnic groups in Iran. The number of these ethnic groups is even more than the population of some regional countries. The possible attacks on Iran will lead the world to encounter the biggest the next biggest wave of refugees. The countries in the region with low populations will be the most affected by this.
by Yunis Abdullayev