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  5. Leyla Shah: My interview with an American analyst, writer and columnist with expertise on Russia Mr Paul Goble

Leyla Shah: My interview with an American analyst, writer and columnist with expertise on Russia Mr Paul Goble

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We were discussed about Kazakhstan

– ​Mr.Goble,​ what do you think that about the​ last recent events which happening in the Kazakhstan?

-I think there has been a popular rising against the government that various factions inside that government and outside actors like Russia are trying to exploit. I don’t believe that anyone created this other than the Kazakh people who have been pushed into a desperate situation and revolted.

-Due to your opinion which reasons have in the background of the protest in the Kazakhstan ?
Social explosion or any preconceived scenario?

-I believe this was a social explosion that had been brewing for a long time.

– ​As you know that the last years had duel power in the Kazakhstan( One part have Nazarbayev and other part in Tokayev)
Maybe this reason increase​ the facts of corruption in the government?

-Divisions within a government can check corruption with each side watching the other, or they can be the occasion for more corruption as one or the other or both grabs what they can expecting to be out.

-Who will win the end of these events?
Nazarbayev, Tokayev, Russia or the people of Kazakhstan who want democrasy?

-It is too early to tell. Russia has perhaps won a round but hardly the whole game, and Tokayev may yet win out over Nazarbayev.​ Democracy is still a longshot but perhaps less so than ten days ago.

-Well, what do you think why Tokayev invited Russia to own country Kazakhstan?

– I think he panicked and decided that the only way he could hold on was to get an outside force in. His domestic security agencies weren’t going to follow orders to shoot Kazakhs and he knew it. They are made up of the same people who are in the streets.

– ​Among the answers to my above question, is​ it possible Tokayev want to remove Nazarbayev outside of the government?

-I’m sure Tokayev wants Nazarbayev out of the way, but I don’t think he organized the protests. Instead, he is trying to use them for his own purposes as are all other participants.

– What are the consequences of Russia entry into Kazakhstan with the name of Collective Security Treaty Organization( CSTO) ?

-Moscow wants to create a precedent it can use elsewhere, most especially in Ukraine. The West needs to make it clear that it opposes such actions, first and foremost to the non-Russian countries indicating that we are for democracy and popular rule not dictatorship and then to Moscow to ensure that Russia not think that actions like this are without consequences.
By Leyla Shah Kafkassam

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