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  5. Kamal Aliyev: İs Nikol Pashinyan on the way to be Mikheil Saakashvili?

Kamal Aliyev: İs Nikol Pashinyan on the way to be Mikheil Saakashvili?

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As you know,there is now anti-Russian sentiment,rhetoric in Armenian society.It is much clear that after the last war in Karabakh continued 44 days and resulted with the defeat of Armenia,ordinary Armenians see Russia with Azerbaijan.According to Armenian society,Russia often acts with Azerbaijan against Armenians.And from this point of view,Russia is not more a friend for Armenia;Putin’s Russia is foe for all Armenians.As a result,anti-Russia rhetoric,sentiment are increasing in Armenia day by day.Furthermore,it is unsurprising that a lot of Armenians are demanding the withdrawal of Armenia from Russian led military organisation CSTO.In this case,a nomber of Armenian citizens intend to push the Russian military base and border troops out of Armenia.Is it possible or not-this is another topic to discuss.But I find it interesting that do Armenians or Pashinyan government have other alternatives to Russia? Fo Armenians believe in US or France that they will come and fight against Azerbaijan in Karabakh…
Some political pundits,parliament members in Armenia are claiming that France or US are able to supply Armenia with modern weapons against Azerbaijan.But it is clear that Western countries including America,Great Britain want Sauth Caucasus without Russia.This is of course geopolitical target by Western powers.
But this is not understandable that foreign troops will be deployed in Karabakh to secure local Armenians.

Let us to think that Pashinyan government demands Russian military base and border troops to withdraw from Armenia.It is possible but this event will transform Yerevan into a hostile state for Putin’s Russia.In this geopolitical context Armenia as a new enemy for Russia and a friend of Washington will also bother Iran.America and Iran are enemies with each other.Right now there is a political and military partnership between Russia and Iran.Tehran supplies Russia with drones to continue its invasion in Ukraine.If Pashinyan government wants close relations,both politically and military must also consider Tehran,not only Moscow.Iran is under the Western sanctions for a long time and will not accept Armenia’s close relations with the Western powers.Iranian authority has always stated that they will not accept any change in the political map of South Caucasus. Uh under these circumstances,Pashinyan government can worsen its relations with Iran.

On the other hand,it is not impossible that Armenian statehood can be transformed into a Georgia of the first term of Michael Saakashvili with the clear pro-American and anti-Russian policies.I remind of you that in Saakashvili’s time Georgia cultivated a strategic partnership with Turkey and Azerbaijan.And this partnership was supported by the US.While supporting Georgia-Turkey-Azerbaijan triangle the US wanted Russia to leave this region.In the last twenty years there took place tectonic changes in the world.Now we are on the eve of New World Order.The security architecture of the world is being changed.In this case,South Caucasus is so vital for regional and global powers.In this context,Armenian current government led by Nikol Pashinyan has got a political scenario for this region.On one hand,Pashinyan states that Russia wants Armenia to join the unian state of Russia and Belarus,open an “exterritorial corridor”to Nakhichevan exclave vie Zengezur region.Pashinyan also is accusing Russia of participating in the closure of Lachin corridor.
Pashinyan is directly criticizing Russia for becoming a silent witness to the demonstration be Azerbaijani ecoactivists.On the other hand,Pashinyan wants to ask the UN Security Council to provide an international peacekeeping mandate for Russian forces in Karabakh.
We will see what happens in a near future between Russia and Armenia.If Pashinyan wants to be “New Saakashvili”,he should be ready Russia’s hostile response.

Kamal Aliyev

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