Firstly,it must be accepted that the Russian peacekeepers stationed in Karabakh are sidelined find themselves sidelined.Azeri eco-activist are keeping up their protest on Shusha-Lachin-Khankendi road.
Although,Russian president Vladimir Putin has called both Azeri and Armenian leaders,the problem has not been settled.The Azeri side blocked the corridor between Karabakh and Armenia in order to prevent the environmental damage to the region.And of course Aliyev government is using the Kremlin’s weakness.As you know,Russia is now at war with Ukraine.Frim this point of view,Russia is paying a little attention to South Caucasus.
Right now Aliyev’s media is describing the peacekeepers in Karabakh as occupiers.Russia is not able to answer these accusations.It does mean that Russia’s hands are tied and if Kremlin answers serious to these accusation,it will only make the situation worse.Acvording to me,the compromise between Baku and Moscow will be likely found.And it is expected the Russian peacekeepers will agree to partially implement Azerbaijan’s demands.But it does’nt happen early.
For now,Russia is trying to weather the storm in the hope that all of these will just go away.But at some point it will have to have a strict conversation between Baku and Moscow about reassessing the existing arrangements in Baku’s favor.Azerbaijan is against the extension of Russian peacekeepers after 2025.On the contrary,Russia wants the extension of peeaskeepers mandate at least till 2030.But Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev has said that the peacekeepers in Karabakh is temporary and his state will ensure the security of ethnic Armenians who are living in the region.
On the other hand,Armenia’s prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has offered that Russian peacekeepers to stay in Karabakh 15-20 years.Pashinyan’s offer on peacekeepers is suitable for Russia.It means that Pashinyan government has a secret agreement with Kremlin in the forthcoming years Karabakh problem will likely be a problem between Russia and Azerbaijan.It seems to me that Pashinyan deos not see the future of Armenia with Russia.Pashinyan sees his countrie’s future in Eurapian Union.
As for the blockade of Lachin corridor,I find it so interesting that just six month ago Azerbaijan did not contest the special status of this road.On the contrary,Aliyev government built a new road well ahead of schedule bypassing the settlements in the Lachin region that had come under Baku’s control.

Baku’s main complaint is that the Armenians are causing environmantel damage to territory that is soon to be resettled by Azerbaijanians by continuing to operate polluting metals mines in parts of Karabakh still controlled by Armenians.
Baku claims that the “state minister”Ruben Vardanyan is Russia’s man in Khankendi and this man is embark on natural resources in Karabakh with the help of Russian peacekeepers.And Baku wants inspectation in Karsbakh but these peacekeepers led by general Andrej Volkov doesn not allow the Azeri state officials.
It is expected that the relations between Azerbaijan and Russia can be spoiled in a near future.And Armenia will do his best to take advantage of this disagreement.

Kamal Aliyev