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  5. Kamal Aliyev: Why Russia insists on delimitation and unblocking transport links for Baku-Yerevan peace deal?

Kamal Aliyev: Why Russia insists on delimitation and unblocking transport links for Baku-Yerevan peace deal?

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Rarely I ask myself that is Russia interested in peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Firstly,I should acknowledge that prior to Moscow discussion on Karabakh problem among Lavrov,Bayramov and Mirzoyan,I did have a great hope for peace.As you know,after the talks in Washington which lasted four days between Bayramov and Mirzoyan(Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers and U S secretary of state Entoni Blinken)it seemed a hope for peace.After Blinken’s sayings,we were very close to peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

 

 

 

 

In my opinion,a positive could be achieved after Washington discussions as a result.Especially,Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan after meeting with Azerbaiyani president Ilham Aliyev in Brussels on May 14,he confirmed his readiness to recognize Azerbaiyan’s territorial integrity.As I understood,US and EU are pressing both Baku and Yerevan to sign far-reaching peace deal.
On the other hand,Moscow is accusing the West of trying to use Karabakh conflict to drive Russia out of South Caucasus.According to Putin’s Russia,Baku-Yerevan agreements(2020,10 November)are the only viable blueprint for political solving of Karabakh conflict.
Thus,two leader-Aliyev and Pashinyan are due to meet in Moscow on May 25 at Russian President Vladimir’s invitation.I guess that the next round of talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan withe the participation of Putin will not be useful.I would emphasize that Russia currently needs the unblocking the transport links and communications.And all these will take more time.It means either delimitation,demarcation process,or unblocking communication links will take much more time.But the West offers initially long standing peace deal,then delimitation and unblocking communication links.

 

Let’s discuss the trilateral meeting in Moscow.Russian top diplomat Sergei Lavrov said that Azerbaijan and Armenia are very,very close to final agreement.According to Lavrov,a separate Armenian and Azerbaijani group working on the border delimitation and demarcation with Russian assistance will be resumed.Regarding the peace agreement,Lavrov announced that on a number of articles the managed to bring the two sides u derstandings closer to a common vision.
My thought is so that with Russia neither Azerbaijan,nor Armenia will be able to make tangible progress.Because Russia wants its peacekeepers stay in Karabakh for a long time.Russia understands that if it withdraws the peacekeeping forces from Karabakh,Moscow’s influence will be disappeared from South Caucasus.Moscow is afraid of that the West can substitute Russia in Karabakh.At least US or EU can give Armenia security guarantees.In this case,there will not be need for Russian soldiers both in Armenia and Karabakh.That is why Russia is prolonging the time,pressing the two sides in order to gain time.
In conclusion,Russia does not need peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan.

Kamal Aliyev

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