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  5. Kamal Aliyev: Turkish elections and Erdogan’s biggest test

Kamal Aliyev: Turkish elections and Erdogan’s biggest test

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Turkish president Receb Tayyib Erdogan has declared that Turkey will hold president and parliament elections on 14 May.I would like to say that this is not snap elections but will be held a month earlier.Furthermore,this date has got a symbol meaning.Thus,on 14 May 1950 Turkey held its first democratic elections in Middle East resulting in the Democrat Party winning a great victory over CHP.CHP was founded by Ataturk-the founder and the first president of Turkey.As you understood,14 May has a symbolic meaning.At that time Democrat Party marked the single -party rule that had dominated this Middle East country since its founding by Ataturk.(former Ottoman officer).
On the other hand,Erdogan’s AKP has its roots loosely DP.
However,Erdogan will participate in the next elections with his main ally Turkish nationalists-National Movement Party led by Dovlat Bakhcali.

Who is Erdogan’s main opponent?

It is believed that Erdogan’s main opponent will be CHP leader Kemal Kilichdaroglu with his opposition alliance consisting of six opposition parties.This is why Turkish opposition needs a unity candidate for the forthcoming elections.CHP and IYI Party are the main opposition forces with other small four small political parties.As you know,Turkey is a presidential and multi-party system and the political parties receiving more than 7% votes can be represented in the parliament.I can express that Turkish elections will be tight and will be Erdogan’s biggest test in his two decades.The 68-year-old leader of Turkey Erdogan has been in power for 20 years and faces now the toughest electoral test in years amid record inflation.The economic situation in Turkey is worse and opposition will take advantage from this reality.But it fact that Erdogan has overseen years of economic growth in the country that saw Turkey joins the ranks of middle-income countries.But recently,economic problems have deplated peopel’s savings.
In addition,Turkish opposition highlights a more illiberal,anti-democratic streak that emerged in the second decade of Erdogan’s rule.Erdogan’s key basic working-class has been hit particularly hard by Turkey’s economic crises.The current inflation in Turkey is more than 85%.It is true that last month Erdogan government increased minimum wage.But real prices in markets are high and it will determine likely the election results.

It seems to me that,the two political parties will influence the results of elections.These are Turkish nationalists(MHP)and Pro-Kurdish HDP.Now Kurdish party has not got candidate for presidential elections and it is possible that they demand political pledges from opposition.The former HDP leader Selahatdin Demirtas is now in prison and Kurdish party demands that he must be set free.I think without HDP Turkish opposition has a little chance to win the elections.The main opposition part CHP want unity with pro-Kurdish Party.But IYI Part is against HDP and does not want coalition with Kurds.IYI Party leader Meral Aksener is nationalist and her supporters’ reaction to HDP is not so positive.
As I expressed above,the forthcoming elections that will be held on 14 May is so key crucial for this Middle East country.Turkey is the second largest military power within NATO and is a candidate for EU.The elections and its results will be attentively observed abroad.Let us see the results of elections in Turkey.Turkish people will decide with Erdogan or with Kilichdaroglu.

Kamal Aliyev

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