Turkey as a NATO member is doing it’s best to avoid a war between Russia and Ukraine.It is known that Ankara hase got good relations with both countries-Russia and Ukraine.
Turkish president Erdogan says that Turkey is ready to do whatever it needs.
On the other hand,president Erdogan frequently meets with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts.This is also Erdogan’s advantage.Erdogan has said that Russia would not attack or occupy Ukraine.At the beginning of February Erdogan visits Ukraine and he has also invited his Russian counterpart to Turkey.As we read in media this invitation has been accepted by Putin.But for this visit Putin does need appropriate time.
As I understood Turkey is keen on dialogue between Russia and Ukraine.Erdogan visits Ukraine in February and meets president of this country Volodomyr Zelenskyy.
Meanwhile,Russis has amassed more than 100 hundred thousand soldiers on the Ukrainian border and it is raising fear among NATO members that Kreml will occupy this country in a near future.
Russia can take eastern partion of Ukraine,because there are living more russian-speaking population.Of course,the ethnic Russians has had always great sympathy to Russia.Shortly,Russis does have a great influence on the eastern part of Ukrsine.
In general,there is an influence of Russia in Ukraine.Pro-Russian political forces have always attempted to topple pro-Western governments.Clearly,Ukrain’s pro-Russian opposition in Ukraine is supported and financed by Kreml.
Moscow has repeatedly said that it has not any plan to lunch such a great invasion.Russia’s condition is that Ukrsine csn not be member of NATO.Russia think that Ukrainian membership to NATO is a great threat to its security.
Turkey has interests and stake in what is going on between Russia and Ukraine.I see that Turkey understands that it has a part in the crises.Since 2019 Turkey has been sold its Bayrakdar TB2 drones to Ukraine.Ankara is invested in the Ukrainian defence industry.And since 2019 Turkey used to attack pro-Russian separatist with Turkidh made drones.This fact has angered Putin recently.V.Putin telling Erdogsn in phone call that Snkara was involved provocative activity.
But Ankara has said that it has sold these drones to Ukraine commited joint production and due to agreement signed between two countries.
Turkey needs Ukraine to develope its military industry and Ankara deos’nt want to be put in a position to choose between Ukraina and Russia.Turkey has also relations with Russia in other theatres,for examples in Syria where it wants to control the situation and prevent it from escalating.
After 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea,Turkey refused to implement US and European Unian sanctions on Russia.But if there is a talk of conflict,Turkey will come under pressure also to align itself with the sanction polish first of all.And I think that this will be a great dilemma for Turkey.After that we will see whether Turkey will continue to supply armed drones,or not.
Turkey does want to confront with Rusdia in any case.But there is not any neutral ground for Ankara.As a member of NSTO Turkey has got obligations.It is true that Ukrsine is not a member of NATO,but except a few countries NATO has got unique position on Ukrainian issue.Turkey has the second largest and strongest in army within NATO.In this case,it is expected great initiatives from Turkey.
In conclusion,Turkey should and must pay a great attention to Ukrainian problem and will be attentive.