Yes,Russia’s president or strongman is tightening his grip on former Soviet republics.Although,there was a long time stability in Kazakhstan.There were two authoritarian leaders in Kazakhstsn:N.Nazarbayev and K.J.Tokayev.As you know,now Russia is conducting military operations in Kazachstan.Prior to these actions,Russia had military actions in South Caucasus,Ukraine and Belarus.But I think that Russia tightens its grip on post-soviet space at the cost of worsening it relations with West and China and of course populations of former Soviet Union.I am highly sure that right now on former Soviet populations hate Russia’s actions as a whole.I read plenty of reactions on social media.A number of reactions,thoughts show us that the people they are afraid of Putin’s actions.It seems to them that this dictator will create USSR.Certainly,this is dangerous enough.
Kazakhstan located at the center of Euroasi owns great energy resources.Then suddenly this oil-riched country was plunged into the unexpected political crise and president Tokayev turned to Putin to help quell these protests.Tokayev wants “to restore”order and consolidate power with Putin’s help.He calls his people terrorists and says that there are 20 thousand terrorists in Almaty.Let’s imagine what does he say.This man does not trust at his people and his army,law enforcement forces.But he believes in CSTO led by Russia and other five member states.
Interestingly,the CSTO led by mainly by Russia speedily approved “peacekeeping”mission to Kazakhstan in order to prevent the protests against Nazarbayev’s regime.I think it is to dangerous precedent to deploy soldiers in Kazakhstan.On the other hand,it will have geopolitical implications not only in Kazakhstan,but also in Centrsl Asia as a whole.We had seen peaceful transition of power in Uzbekistan and multiple revolts,turmoils in Kyrgysztan.It was the one area where Russia,Iran,Turkey,India,EU,USA and Pakistan were able to avoid zero-sum thinking and manage some cooperation until this day.
I think that the use of Russia’s military to prop up a regime in Kazakhstan that has lost its legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens means that this country will no be able to maintain its multivector politics.Kazakhstan will face greater assertiveness and expectations from Moscow.And this fact will constrain Kazakhstan’s relations with West,Chine and Turkey.
On the other hand,the geopolitical fallout may go beyond new sources of tension between Russia and West.It msy also undermine China-Russia balance in Central Asia.
Russia may now seek to convert its enhanced security clout into economic power.
Russia will increase its influance over Kazakhstan’vast oil and gas recourses.Chine is a major investor and consumer on this spheare.I think that all these causes can increase the tension between Moscow and Beijing in a near future.According to me,Rusdia’s actions in Kazakhstan right now were also respond to Chine.Rusdia said to Chine that ok you are strong economically,but Central Asia is my backyard and I will never give up this region-neither to West,nor Chine.
Kamal Aliyev Kafkassam