Earlear this week protest actions against high-fuel hike in Kazakgstan spiraled out of control.First of all,all things seemed as a social protests.Previously,there ware not s number of people.Then we could see that the protesters present also political demands.Of course,these were unexpected for Tokayev government.They could have thought that these were only large-scale protests and were unable to affect the current political system.It seems to me that Tokayev government made great mistakes.But in the end he understood his mistakes,but it was a little bit late.
What happened then? To deale with problem Kassym Jomart Tokayev has invited the peacekeepers from the Collective Security Tresty Organisation(CSTO).We all know that CSTO is led by Russia and alternative to NATO.Through the help CSTO Putin aims to punish the opposition-minded people in former USSR.This is reality and we are to pay attention to this organisation.Personally,I find this organisation dangerous enough-for pease,security and stability in post-soviet countries.
The troops belonging to CSTO are already on the ground and conducting military operations against protesters.
To tell truth,the unrest in Kazakhstan is unusual.This country has had always stabile autocracy with rigged elections and no free expression.And the scale of protesters was unprecedented in Kazakhstan.
In addition,both Russia and Chine are watching the events closely.Surely,these global powers have interests in Kazakhstan.On the other hand,Chine imports natural gaz from Kazakhstan.Yes,a spike in dual prices catalyzed the protests.But the real causes are deeper and have a great meaning.
I think that one of the key important causes of this turmoil is Putin’s intention to expand his power in former Soviet republic.Kazakhstan is also important to Russia as Ukraine.There are millions of ethnic Russians living in Kazakhstan.This fact is also a political tool in Putin’s hands.
I want to say that the decision to deploy CSTO troops to Kazskhstan was likely made by Putin.This means that Putin considers it more important to strengthen Moscow’s position in Kazakhstan.Putin also shows to Chine that no one can interference to Kazskhstan except Russia.
Of course,CSTO deployment to Kazachstan could also leave Tokayev beholden to Putin.I find this so real.Moscow’s position in Central Asia would deteriorate if a popular revolt produces a reform-minded government.Otherwise Yokayev can call Chine to help to stay in power.But this variant is only probability.Right now more than 100.000 Russian soldiers are parking on the border with Ukraine and here emerges a question whether Russia can exploit these two issues…
Putin aims to have a cake and to eat it too.Yes,this is Putin’s target,but this is too hard to make it easier.
Kamal Aliyev Kafkassam