Alihüseyin Guluzade: İran -Israel War – Outcomes and Post-Conflict Scenarios

In this objective, unbiased report, a comprehensive analysis of open-source data on the war between Israel and Iran is presented.  

1. Operation “Rising Lion”

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran under the codename Operation “Rising Lion.” Israeli officials framed the operation as a preemptive war aimed at “weakening, destroying, and eliminating the threat” of potential Iranian nuclear weapons. This justification was based on the claim that Iran was “closer than ever to acquiring nuclear weapons“—a statement that contradicted U.S. intelligence assessments, which indicated that Tehran had not made a decision to build a bomb.
2. Israel’s Warfare Style and Objectives

The primary focus of Israel’s campaign was the systematic dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program. At the Natanz enrichment facility, strikes destroyed the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP), which housed over 1,700 advanced IR-4 and IR-6centrifuges used to enrich uranium to 60% purity. Satellite imagery confirmed the destruction of this above-ground facility and damage to critical electrical substations. The Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) was also repeatedly targeted, resulting in damage to the uranium conversion facility, the uranium metal production plant, and the central chemical laboratory.

Although Israel initially refrained from striking the deeply buried enrichment complex at Fordow, its campaign followed a clear logic—dismantling the “protective umbrella” of the facility. This included strikes on the Hazrat-e Masumeh air defense site in Qom province, which protects Fordow.

Israel also assassinated top military commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—Chief of the General Staff Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, and Head of the Emergency Command Gholam Ali Rashid. However, initial reports of the death of IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani were later proven false during victory celebrations in Tehran.

The Mossad operation also included efforts to eliminate Iran’s human capital: at least five senior nuclear scientists from Shahid Beheshti University were reported dead on June 12-13, 2025, and another was killed in a drone strike on his residence in Tehran on June 20, 2025.

3. Iran Strikes Back

Iran’s military response began approximately 18 hours after the initial Israeli strikes and continued throughout the 10-day period (1). In total, Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and over 1,000 drones at Israeli targets.

On June 18, 2025, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a sacred message signaling the start of the Battle of Khaybar (a symbol of Muslim victory over Jews) (2). The attacks targeted major population centers, including Tel Aviv and Haifa, as well as strategic military sites such as Ovda Airbase and Ben Gurion International Airport. To maximize impact, Iran deployed some of its most advanced munitions, including the Khorramshahr-4ballistic missile (also known as “Kheibar Shekan“), which has a large payload and can be equipped with cluster or multiple warheads.

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The effectiveness of Iran’s counterstrike was mixed. On one hand, some missiles and drones successfully penetrated Israel’s multi-layered air defense system, causing damage to infrastructure in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, and Beit She’an. By June 21, 2025, Iran launched smaller volleys of about five missiles, all of which were intercepted, which could talk about the devastation of the arsenal of weapons (3).

As Israel’s campaign to destroy Iran’s launch infrastructure progressed, the effectiveness of Iran’s retaliatory salvos appeared to diminish. By June 21, 2025, Iran was launching smaller salvos of approximately five missiles, all of which were intercepted. This was also evident from open sources.

4. Cracks in the “Resistance”

The conflict revealed significant realignment within Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Hezbollah, historically Iran’s most powerful proxy, remained militarily passive. In stark contrast, the Houthimovement in Yemen emerged as Iran’s most active and committed ally. Iran-backed militias in Iraq, operating under the umbrella of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), played a more measured role.

5. Trump’s “Midnight Hammer”

On June 22, 2025, the conflict escalated sharply when the United States entered as a direct combatant. Under the codename Operation “Midnight Hammer,” the U.S. Air Force conducted “massive precision strikes” on three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

The strategic rationale for this intervention was the assessment that only the U.S. military possessed the specific munitions required to destroy the deeply buried and heavily fortified facility at Fordow.

The operation involved B-2 stealth bombers delivering at least 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs)—30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs—on Fordow and Natanz, supplemented by Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from submarines. U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, emphasized that the mission was to prevent nuclear proliferation, not regime change.

6. End of the War

On June 24, 2025, the IRGC struck U.S. bases, with a significant portion targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Tehran also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after this incident, Donald Trump announced a truce between Israel and Iran.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office confirmed the cessation of strikes. Iran’s National Security Council also announced the ceasefire, declaring victory.

However, Trump later expressed dissatisfaction, stating that both sides had violated the truce, especially Israel, although Tehran and Washington later exchanged messages promising no further strikes.

The 12-day war came to an end.  

Key Points:

 Although Israel appears to be in a more advantageous position in the Iran-Israel confrontation, it cannot be said that the Jewish state fully achieved its objectives. Iran objectively withstood the USA-Israel tandem but suffered significant damage to its nuclear and military capabilities. Nevertheless, the final status of its nuclear program remains uncertain.

 Israel is also expected to face internal political upheaval, particularly targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: likely through the initiation of judicial proceedings or pressure for early elections.

 Notably, markets and auctions (especially oil) did not react to the war during the 12-day period.

 Early in the operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that only the USA could destroy the Fordow facility, confirming the view of initial coordination with the American side.

 It is noteworthy that the IDF’s targets were exclusively the military-political elite and the scientific community of Iran, not the “backbone” of the Iranian political system—the ayatollahs. This primarily refers to high-ranking clerics who represent the Supreme Leader in the provinces.

 The war was also accompanied by periodic psychological attacks from Israel and the USA “on the likelihood of regime change in Iran,” urging Iranians to overthrow the current political system, and suggesting the possibility of assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Notably, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi was actively promoted in the West as a “democratic ruler.”

This raises the question: were the USA and Israel sufficiently familiar with Iranian society to attempt to overthrow the ayatollahs with such statements; and did Washington and Tel Aviv understand that the regime in Iran is nearly impossible to topple through external factors?

 Also noteworthy is the “notifications” by both sides of impending strikes on military-strategic infrastructure. For example, the Iranian side had already removed uranium from Fordow before the U.S. strike (4). In turn, the American side evacuated personnel from the targeted area before Iranian strikes on their Kuwaiti base (5).

Forecasts (up to Q4 2025):

 No regime change in Iran is expected, despite ongoing psychological pressure from the USA and Israel.

 Iran—damaged and diplomatically isolated—will likely be more determined than ever to acquire nuclear deterrence, though not in the near or medium term.

 After the 12-day war, the USA and Iran will likely find common ground on a nuclear agreement. Nevertheless, Tehran will probably begin promoting its program as “exclusively peaceful.”

 Post-war Iran will likely undergo deep reforms, particularly in administrative-territorial management. Provinces will probably be given more local governance functions, and Iran may resemble a semi-federation in its structure.

 Iran’s repressive apparatus will likely be strengthened.

 Discussions may arise in Iran about using the languages of other ethnic groups at the state level, particularly Azerbaijani Turkish. This issue could spark heated debates, especially since it relates to one of the election promises of the ethnic Azerbaijani and current President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian.

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