Ali Hüseyin Guluzade: Persian motifs – Secret Iran-Russia missile deal worth €500 million and its additional aspects amid tensions in the Middle East
On February 22, 2026, the Financial Times reported on a secret arms contract between Iran and Russia valued at approximately €500 million. The agreement is intended to strengthen Iran’s air defence system following the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in the summer of 2025, amid the current escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran. Despite the absence of official confirmation from either the Iranian or Russian sides, the scale of the leak and the consistency of reporting across leading media outlets suggest with a high degree of probability that the deal has indeed been concluded.
According to information from the Financial Times and subsequent publications in other media outlets, a secret contract was signed in Moscow in December 2025 between the Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and representatives of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL).
Leaked information indicates that Iran is set to receive 500 9K333 Verba portable surface-to-air missile systems along with 2,500 9M336 missiles, as well as a package of supporting equipment, including approximately 500 Mowgli-2 night vision sights.
The total value of the deal is estimated at €495–500 million. Deliveries are planned in three tranches between 2027 and 2029, although some sources suggest that a limited number of systems may be transferred ahead of schedule. As of the time of publication, neither the Kremlin nor the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran has publicly confirmed or denied these reports.
The 12-Day War and gaps in Iran’s air defence
Naturally, the Verba contract is directly linked to the consequences of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, in which the United States participated on Israel’s side. During this campaign, Israeli and American strikes targeted, among others, three key Iranian nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan) and elements of Iran’s air defence system, including Russian S-300 systems and Iranian long-range complexes.
Open-source assessments vary, but several independent sources claim that up to 120 elements of Iran’s air defence were destroyed or disabled during the 12-day war, representing approximately one-third of the pre-war inventory of medium- and long-range systems. This created vulnerabilities, particularly against low-flying UAVs and cruise missiles, for which large stationary Iranian complexes proved either poorly suited or too easily detectable and suppressible.
According to reports, shortly after the end of this war – in July 2025 – Tehran officially requested the supply of Verba systems from Moscow to compensate for losses and to diversify its layered air defence.
Why the Verba MANPADS specifically?
The Verba is a modern Russian man-portable air-defence system (MANPADS) designed to engage low-flying targets such as aircraft, helicopters, UAVs, and cruise missiles. Unlike bulky long-range SAM systems, MANPADS can be deployed by small mobile teams, making them difficult for the adversary to detect and destroy through preemptive strikes.
Following the failure of Iran’s large positional air defence systems in June 2025, the decision to mass-deploy portable complexes represents a logical step by the IRGC toward a more dispersed and resilient air defence model. While MANPADS do not deprive the United States and Israel of the ability to conduct strikes, they significantly increase the cost of any low-altitude operations over Iranian territory, raising risks for helicopters, support aircraft, and reconnaissance UAVs.
It is also evident that the deal provides Russia with both economic and political benefits. There are at least two main reasons for this:
Moscow’s willingness to proceed with such a deal primarily demonstrates Russia’s de facto unwillingness to comply with the “snapback” sanctions mechanism against Iran, which the West interprets as the restoration of certain UN Security Council arms restrictions. In this context, Tehran serves for the Kremlin not only as a military partner but also as a key collaborator in circumventing sanctions and strengthening influence in Eurasia and the Middle East.
Limitations of the deal and the degree of military integration
Nevertheless, despite the impressive sum and scale of the supplies, the MANPADS deal itself does not equate to deep military integration or a formal alliance treaty between Moscow and Tehran. It should be noted that this is an important but still targeted element within the broader framework of Russian-Iranian cooperation, which includes joint exercises, arms exchanges, and security consultations.
A key nuance here is the timeline. The main deliveries are scheduled for 2027–2029, leaving Iran’s air defence system in a vulnerable position for the next 2–3 years. During this period, the IRGC will have to rely on partially obsolete and damaged air defence assets, preserving a window of opportunity for the United States and Israel to exert pressure and conduct precision strikes.
Consequently, given the limited capacity for rapid deliveries of modern weaponry and comprehensive modernisation of its air defences, Iran traditionally relies on asymmetric warfare—a network of proxy groups in the region, a missile and drone arsenal, and cyber operations. In this context, strengthening the lower tier of air defence with Verba systems complements this strategy by increasing the cost to any adversary attempting to strike Iranian territory or critical infrastructure.
Military analysts are examining scenarios that include both centralised use of MANPADS for point defence of critical facilities and the potential distribution of some systems among allied groups outside Iran (such as Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthis). This would significantly complicate the risk assessment for Israel and the United States in the event of direct confrontation.
Possible US reaction to the deal
It is noteworthy that reports of the Iran-Russia deal emerged against the backdrop of the largest build-up of U.S. military presence in the Middle East in recent years and discussions regarding possible American strikes on Iranian targets in the event of a failure in multi-round (indirect) negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly linked the future of the negotiations to stringent demands on Iran, without ruling out the use of force. However, in the short term, Washington is more likely to respond to the Iran-Russia deal through political and diplomatic measures—such as statements, sanctions, and increased pressure on partners—rather than immediate military actions.
The reasons are clear: any direct strikes on Iran before deliveries are completed would only push Tehran toward further deepening ties with Moscow (or Beijing) and increase the risks of drawing the entire Persian Gulf region into conflict.
Regarding the latter, for the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf—already alarmed by the prospect of a U.S.-Iran confrontation and the growth of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities—the news of a large-scale strengthening of Iranian air defences serves as yet another signal to review their own defence plans. Regional Arab leaders publicly call on Washington for restraint but are simultaneously accelerating consultations with the United States and other arms suppliers regarding new missile defence systems and countermeasures against Iranian missiles and UAVs.
Historical precedents show that even discussions of supplying advanced air defence systems to the region (for example, Qatar’s discussions with Russia regarding the S-400 in 2018) have traditionally provoked extremely harsh reactions from neighbours, up to threats of military response from Saudi Arabia. Against this backdrop, Iran’s multi-year contract for hundreds of MANPADS is naturally perceived as a factor accelerating the regional arms race and further binding the Gulf monarchies to the American military shield.
In summary, while the secret Verba contract worth €500 million does not render Iran invulnerable nor transform Russian-Iranian relations into a full-fledged military alliance, it does significantly raise the tactical cost of any future airstrikes on Iranian territory. It also demonstrates the willingness of Moscow and Tehran to deepen military-technical cooperation despite Western sanctions pressure.
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