Akshin Karimov: Putin and Ahmad Al-şara signals the potential for a multi-vector relationship between the two sides

The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria’s transitional President Ahmad Al-Sharaa signals the potential for a multi-vector relationship between the two sides.

Since the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in December of last year, Russia has found itself in a geopolitically weakened position in the Syrian theater of the Middle East, especially in comparison to the United States and Turkey. However, Moscow has managed to maintain its military bases along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, which are vital for its power projection in the region.

On the other hand, Russia and Syria now appear to be prioritizing cooperation in the military, energy, and economic domains. This has given rise to perceptions that Moscow is gradually regaining the influence it once held in Syria. Amid Syria’s ongoing struggle with severe shortages in critical resources, Damascus is continuing to seek economic assistance from Russia—creating further opportunities for the Kremlin to deepen its foothold.

At the same time, the Syrian government seems to be leveraging Russia for another strategic purpose: balancing Israel’s influence in Syria. This maneuver hinges on Moscow’s potential to counteract Israeli operations within Syrian territory. However, given that Russia has concentrated most of its strategic focus on the war in Ukraine, questions remain as to how effectively it can manage its geopolitical posture in Syria.

Moreover, Russia’s leverage over Israel appears limited, while the United States remains the more active player in shaping the geopolitical architecture of the Middle East. Still, Russia securing representation in Syria’s energy and economic sectors might be a development that even Washington finds acceptable.

This insight is reinforced by the fact that the United States has not placed significant obstacles in the way of Russian tankers—sanctioned since March 2025—delivering crude and refined oil to Syria. It is also conceivable that Israel may support certain projects involving Russian participation.

It is likely that Russia is working to define frameworks for cooperation with Israel, the United States, and Turkey regarding Syria. In this evolving landscape, former President Bashar al-Assad increasingly appears to be a figure who could be sacrificed.

Syrian officials are likely aiming to bolster both domestic and international legitimacy by ending Russian support for the remnants of the Assad regime. Following this, procedures may begin for the possible extradition of Bashar al-Assad, who currently resides in exile in Russia. If Moscow can secure significant and decisive concessions from Ahmad Al-Sharaa, the handover of Assad to Syrian authorities cannot be ruled out.