1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Baku coincides with the scheduled visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Azerbaijan. This has fueled expectation about a potential trilateral meeting between Erdoğan and Netanyahu, mediated by Azerbaijan. Even if such a high-level dialogue does not materialize, Azerbaijan’s proactive and adaptive diplomacy underscores its capacity to remain relevant and effective in complex geopolitical scenarios. As Azerbaijan plays a facilitative role in the normalization of Turkish-Israeli relations, some external actors may attempt to delay the mediation process. Nevertheless, this would not diminish Azerbaijan’s growing reputation as a credible moderator in regional and global crises.
2. Amid shifting geopolitical boundaries and emerging regional flashpoints, Azerbaijan has devised strategies aimed at de-escalation and conflict prevention. The visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Baku illustrates Azerbaijan’s intent to utilize anticipatory diplomatic and political mechanisms. Traditionally, global powers have led mediation efforts in regional conflicts; however, Azerbaijan is now positioning itself as a viable broker, offering practical and reliable diplomatic frameworks. By doing so, Baku seeks to enhance its regional influence and bolster its standing as a significant geopolitical actor. This shift strengthens Azerbaijan’s leverage in regional negotiations and positions it as a central player in strategic dialogues. In this context, the prospect of crucial Iran–Israel meeting in Baku—whether public or confidential—cannot be ruled out.
3. Netanyahu’s visit also aligns with heightened discussion regarding potential U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran. Concurrently, Iran and the United States are engaged in phased negotiations toward a renewed nuclear agreement. From Israel’s perspective, this visit serves as a diplomatic maneuver within a broader strategy aimed at constraining Iran’s regional influence. One factor shaping this approach is the apparent reluctance of powers such as Russia and China to assume firm security commitments toward Iran. In a potential military scenario, if Tehran perceives a lack of support from Moscow and Beijing, its strategic options could narrow, pushing the regime into further isolation. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may once again face a binary choice: to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions or risk existential threats to the regime. Against this backdrop, Iran’s shifting posture toward Azerbaijan has emerged as a focal point within Israel’s foreign policy considerations.
4. Azerbaijan is closely observing the evolving rapprochement between Turkiye and Israel. This alignment could serve as a strategic buffer against Iran’s expanding nuclear ambitions and its potential bargains in its talks with Washington. Furthermore, closer cooperation between Ankara and Tel Aviv may significantly influence Middle East geopolitics, particularly in relation to Kurdish coalition. This could indicate a potential convergence in Turkish and Israeli positions on the Kurdish issue. Should such a consensus emerge, it may prompt recalibrations across the region, including within Iran. Emphasizing Turkish-Kurdish solidarity—with Israeli endorsement—could introduce a novel strategic aprroach, potentially reshaping regional threat perceptions and alliances.
Agshin Karimov
