Agshin Karimov: What does Pashinyan say to Azerbaijan?

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been introducing a new tone in Armenia’s policy toward Azerbaijan since 2020. Unlike previous years, Pashinyan now signals a shift that includes elements previously unseen in Yerevan’s official discourse. In particular, he appears to be preparing Armenian society to accept some of the key terms and principles put forward by Azerbaijan within the framework of a peace agenda.

This shift, however, may be seen as situational rather than strategic. The risk that Armenia could attempt to revanchist its positions in the future compels Azerbaijan to maintain a robust and proactive foreign, defense, and intelligence policy.

Pashinyan’s peace-related statements and public messaging reflect a complex balance between internal pressures, regional realities, and international expectations — as well as Azerbaijan’s clearly defined post-war stance. Azerbaijan, in turn, interprets these hesitations and uses them to reinforce its own national interests.

Importantly, Pashinyan seems to recognize the danger of aligning Armenia too closely with the geopolitical ambitions of states supporting Yerevan. As a result, he has voiced positions that, in some aspects, appear closer to Azerbaijan’s peace proposals — likely a strategic move aimed at minimizing external risks and domestic instability.

At the same time, Pashinyan faces internal political challenges. With growing opposition movements and mounting pressure, his government is seeking to secure its stability. In this context, there are indications that Pashinyan views signals of peace and security from Azerbaijan as potential tools to preserve his hold on power.

For now, Pashinyan’s continued leadership is acceptable for Baku. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan is also analyzing for likely political changes in Armenia. Regardless of who comes to power in Yerevan, Baku’s goal is to ensure that the outcome of the 2020 war — its territorial integrity and regional leadership — cannot be reversed.

To this end, Azerbaijan is using the current political moment to establish a legal and diplomatic framework that secures its gains. By doing so, it is also expanding its influence over Armenia’s political and security dynamics, ensuring greater flexibility in the face of sudden developments in the region.

Agshin Karimov