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Agshin Karimov: U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Agreement

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1. This document directs the U.S. diplomacy and strategy in the South Caucasus with regard to new alternatives. However, it does not cover the power to protect Armenia’s security from threats. Because:

– Armenia is essentially a testing ground for powers attempting to reshape the balance of power – on one side, there is a Russian military base, on another, the European Union mission, and yet another side is influenced by the anticipated U.S. border mission;

– Azerbaijan’s undisclosed and presented military-strategic advantages on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, along with Baku’s initiatives to extend its sphere of influence within Armenia in the context of strategic alliance with Ankara, diminish the likelihood of any U.S. military intervention;

– Iran’s growing realization of the need to make deals with Azerbaijan and Turkiye is accelerating, further worsening Armenia’s prospects.

2. Azerbaijan’s strengthening alliances with Russia and China, deepening its partnership relations with NATO, create difficulties for the U.S. in strengthening security and defense cooperation with Armenia. In this context:

– The U.S. mobilizing its power across multiple directions creates problematic and complex situations for Washington;
– It is challenging for the White House to manage a competitive arena with both China and Russia in the region, a situation that becomes clearer in light of the ongoing processes in Georgia;

– NATO’s partnership with Azerbaijan compels the U.S. to represent Azerbaijan’s interests in matters regarding the Caspian Sea. This could reveal a “maritime geopolitics” scenario in the South Caucasus under the Trump administration;

– It is likely that the U.S. will attempt to maintain balance by signing a similar partnership document with Azerbaijan.

3. The implementation of the agreement disregards Armenia’s limited capabilities and pushes it towards more complex and problematic areas in challenging situations. This can be seen in the potential escalation risks on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border and their consequences. However:

– The Trump administration could host high-level talks between Baku and Yerevan to ensure the intensification of the U.S. on peace agenda for Azerbaijan-Armenia relations;

– However, this will stimulate political will on both sides to negotiate, without necessarily leading to a resolution of outstanding issues…

Agshin Karimov

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