President Donald Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, and countering Iran’s malign influence abroad.

I. Document Assessment in the Context of Iran’s Nuclear Program

1. In the face of setbacks across various regions, Iran has expanded its nuclear research activities. Its approach to advancing a nuclear weapons program coincides with a period when key elements of Tehran’s deterrence capabilities—specifically, proxy forces—are eroding. To compensate for this, Iran has taken steps to dramatically increase the production of enriched uranium. Quantitatively, Iran could have the potential to increase uranium enrichment from 60% to 90%.

2. According to available information, Iran has conducted uranium enrichment up to 60% at the deeply buried “Fordo” facility, located inside a mountain. In this context, efforts to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program through military strikes become futile, as even missile attacks cannot penetrate the nuclear facilities hidden deep within the mountains. Consequently, Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, aimed at countering the likelihood of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, has been aligned with measures targeting the collapse of Iran’s economy. The “maximum pressure” sanctions are likely to worsen Iran’s economic situation, as the country’s budget is heavily dependent on oil exports, and the sanctions specifically target Iran’s energy sector.

Despite this, both Iran and the U.S. are preparing not for military conflict, but for potential negotiations. Should the U.S. demands for changes to Iran’s nuclear activities remain unmet, Washington will continue to activate sanctions against Tehran. However, the nature of these punitive measures is expected to lead to disagreements between the U.S. and Israel.

3. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and Iran includes cooperation in nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Russia has no interest in Iran’s nuclear program progressing to the level of nuclear weapons development. Therefore, Russia evaluates U.S. pressures on Iran not in terms of violations of nuclear security commitments, but rather within the broader economic context. In essence, Russia has long refrained from holding Iran accountable for any violations of nuclear security obligations.

II. Potential Benefits and Risks of the Document for Azerbaijan

1. According to the Memorandum, the Attorney General will take all necessary legal steps to investigate, disrupt, and prosecute financial and logistical networks, operatives, or proxy groups within the United States that are sponsored by Iran or Iranian-backed terrorist organizations. This will extend to U.S. foreign policy, as comprehensive operations will target entities or individuals supported by Iran. Overall, the document, in the context provided, is of considerable relevance to Azerbaijan.

2. As part of ongoing efforts to downplay Iran’s nuclear file, the U.S. may consider using the South Caucasus region as a strategic front against Tehran. This scenario would be undesirable for Azerbaijan, as potential U.S. actions could reignite tensions between Baku and Tehran. In such a case, Iran may once again reiterate its attempts to draw parallels between Azerbaijan’s national interests and the ambitions of foreign powers, which will inevitably lead to political tensions at the very least.

Agshin Karimov,
Political analyst