Agshin Karimov: Russia USA and Iran

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to Oval office for a second term necessitates a reassessment of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly in relation to its evolving dynamics within the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical context.

A notable development was the participation of U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs, Mr. Steve Witkoff, in U.S.-Russia negotiations held in Saudi Arabia—a move that drew significant attention and raised speculation about broader strategic intentions. Shortly thereafter, Mr. Witkoff paid a visit to Russia, further indicating a potential attempt by both Washington and Moscow to frame the outcome of the Ukraine conflict in relation to evolving scenarios in the Middle East.

While both powers appear to be exploring avenues for negotiation or trade-offs in the region, the durability and feasibility of such arrangements remain highly uncertain. This uncertainty is likely shaping by the inability of both sides to reconcile their interests amidst rising tensions—particularly the ongoing escalation between Israel and Iran.

In this context, it is conceivable that Russia might signal a willingness to accommodate certain U.S. interests in the Middle East in exchange for a scaled-back American posture in Ukraine. The recent events unfolding in Iran could, therefore, be interpreted as part of the broader strategic calculus.

Despite Russia’s political condemnation of Israeli and U.S. military actions targeting Iran, its rhetoric has been notably restrained when it comes to issuing direct threats against Washington. This suggests that Moscow is leveraging the Iran-Israel confrontation as a bargaining tool, implicitly seeking concessions from the United States on the Ukrainian front.

Strategically, Russia is likely aiming to keep the Iran-related escalation within controllable limits. Analysts point out that an increased likelihood of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz during a protracted conflict would serve Russia’s interests. Given Moscow’s ongoing economic isolation under Western sanctions, any significant rise in global oil prices—triggered by disruptions in the Strait—would enhance its energy revenues, thereby strengthening its financial capacity to sustain military operations in Ukraine.

In short, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would destabilize global energy markets. But this actions indirectly will serve as a medium-term financial lever for Russia to prolong its war effort in Ukraine.