Agshin Karimov: On the U.S. Involvement in the Israel–Iran Military Confrontation

1. The United States does not focus the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program. Rather, Washington has centered the “rise” of Iran’s nuclear ambitions within the context of enhancing its leverage in regional policy. However, for Israel, the development of Iran’s nuclear program remains unacceptable and poses a direct existential threat.

2. Nevertheless, the U.S. and Israel saw the necessity of establishing a joint operational framework, preparing the ground by framing the military actions as a matter of Israel’s self-defense. This reflects the extent to which the U.S. implicitly agrees with Israel’s determination to launch military strikes.

3. The coordination between the U.S. and Israel in relation to strikes on Iran will determine how the escalation unfolds. It is highly likely that decisions made by the White House will significantly influence Israel’s ability to continue and expand this military campaign.

4. Israel’s multi-faceted strikes are aimed at undermining Iran’s capacity to acquire nuclear weapons. However, the direct and long-term impact of these strikes on Iran’s nuclear program remains uncertain.

5. One of the reasons for Iran’s seeming inability to respond effectively to Israel’s attacks lies in Israel’s targeting of Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites, air defense systems, and ammunition depots—disrupting Iran’s ability to mount a coordinated response.

6. The assassination of key figures within the Iranian elite is leading to a reshuffling of the country’s administrative apparatus. This transformation may be steered by the U.S.-Israel tandem as an opportunity to align emerging leadership with shared strategic interests. In this regard, external influences in managing potential waves of domestic unrest in Iran are inevitable. These will either clash with or contribute to consensus among the groups preparing for a post-Khamenei era within Iran.

Agshin Karimov