Agshin Karimov: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to Azerbaijan and his meeting with President Ilham Aliyev
A few insights on the visit of the President of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, to Azerbaijan and his meeting with President Ilham Aliyev
1. #Germany is increasingly aware of the growing significance of the Caspian region for Europe’s energy security and economic interests. Germany intends to assume a distinctive responsibility in the region and create added value by shaping Europe’s policy on the South Caucasus. This is a response by Berlin to the challenges Europe faces in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, and Germany is concerned that without an agreement with #Azerbaijan in the region, potential problems may escalate.
2. In order to position itself as a reliable geopolitical actor in the South Caucasus, Germany may choose to support the Baku-Ankara strategic alliance. The new potential for cooperation with Germany in the region can be assessed through the Berlin-Baku-Ankara framework. However, Germany may encounter competing ambitions from France in this regard. Nonetheless, Germany’s relations with Azerbaijan are valuable in neutralizing the French influence in this context.
3.Germany’s engagement in the South Caucasus necessitates an examination of its interests in the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agenda. Germany still has mechanisms for supporting Armenia, but it seeks to position itself centrally in advancing Azerbaijan’s strategic interests through the peace agreement. Germany is likely to support Azerbaijan’s decisions regarding the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group.
On the other hand, Germany, considering its geo-economic interests, may not oppose Azerbaijan’s demand for the withdrawal of the European Union’s mission in #Armenia. This could serve as a formula proposed by Germany for the effective and constructive deepening of the European Union’s influence in the region.
Agshin Karimov
