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  5. Kamal Aliyev: Russia’s victory in Ukraine will have geopolitical consequences for NATO and EU

Kamal Aliyev: Russia’s victory in Ukraine will have geopolitical consequences for NATO and EU

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After a month it will be a year that Russia’s invasion is going on in Ukraine. Putin’s brutal war against Ukraine has already created worse outcomes for this country.But in this article I would like to tuch upon a few points in detail.
Firstly,nobody knows or is not able to give exactly time for the end of this brutal war.At the beginning,İ had stressed that this war is likely to continue two or three years.And now we are witnessing this fact.This war in Ukraine is a matter of life or death for Putin’s regime.It does mean that if Ukraine(I hope to this)wins clearly on Russia,it will be end of Putin’s regime and disintegration of Russian Federation.It is familiar to us from history that, Soviet Union’s defeat in Afganistan was one of the reasons of communist regime.Soviet Union stayed 10 years in Afganistan and this war harassed the communist regime.But on Ukranian the current situation is a little bit different. Because Putin is not Gorbachov and he recognizes the Western countries better than the last Soviet leader. Secondly, despite Russia is under Western economic sanctions,it could sell its oil and gas to the countries like China and Indis. Furthermore,Putin’s regime has an ally like Iran.Both Russia and Iran are authoritarian regimes and they help each other.
Especially,Iranian regime supplies drones to Russia to use in Ukraine.
But I ought to confess that NATO Allies have provided unprecedented support to help Ukraine uphold its right of self-defence,and called for deliveres of military equipment to be stepped up at this critical time.And it is clear that if we all Ukraine to prevail,then this country needs military strength.

I guess that the war in Ukraine is for the sake of democracy and it is important enough that Kyiv wins this war over Putin’s regime.
If Putin wins this war against Ukraine,it will be tragedy and dangerous for NATO and EU.In this case,all authoritarian regimes will take advantages from Putin’s victory and they use also brutal force.Now all authoritarian are observing this war and will take steps on this situation.
Additionally,authoritarian regimes will be able to easily violate international law.As a result of Putin’s victory,we see global changes;disintegration of NSTO,even EU.This war’s unacceptable outcomes will bring itself so serious geopolitical consequences.Moreover,Putin’s victory in Ukraine will make the world more dangerous and us vulnarable.That is why I drew the attention to this situation.
On the other hand,Putin tries his best to take control at least the eastern part of Ukraine.If Putin achieves his aim,he will present this outcome as a great victory to Russian people.But the most dangerous thing is Russia uses nuclear weapon in Ukraine.It is also a great threat for Europa.Putin’s close ally and then president of Russia D.Medvedev has stressed that if Russia defeats in Ukraine,it will use nuclear weapon.Regardless of these sayings,I hope that Russia never uses nuclear weapon.Hereby,one of the sides involving in this war will win.If Russia wins in Ukraine,it will be the end of Western era and liberal system.Then we see authoritarian regimes violating international law and using force against their people.I hope that Russia and other authoritarian leaders,regimes do not achieve anything either.

Kamal Aliyev Kafkassam

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